Can a 90% Effective Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine Stop the Coronavirus Pandemic?
On November 9, 2020, Pfizer and its German biotech partner BioNTech announced their successful data from a large, late-stage (Phase 3) clinical study at an impeccable time when the nation is facing coronavirus resurgence. The vaccine they developed proved to be more than 90% effective, hitting a major milestone of the vaccine development plan and a much-desired breakthrough. But can this COVID-19 vaccine bring an end to this global health crisis?
This vaccine certainly has a huge potential to stop the pandemic, but there are caveats. Before getting into that, let’s take a look at their high-level data and make some sense out of it. What we know so far is that there were a total of 43,538 volunteers who participated in the study and 94 of them ended up contracting COVID-19. Know that the individuals who contracted COVID-19 come from both the vaccinated and unvaccinated (placebo) groups of this study. Vaccine efficacy is measured by comparing the frequency of infections in the vaccinated and the unvaccinated (placebo) groups. The numbers equate to about 90% effectiveness for those who were vaccinated, and effectiveness was apparent 7 days after having taken the 2nd booster doses of the vaccine. Since the two doses were given 21 days apart, participants who took the vaccine became protected about 28 days after the first dose. The companies plan to reassess the vaccine’s effectiveness again once 264 study participants get sick with coronavirus. The final rate of effectiveness, therefore, will vary as the study continues. Equally encouraging is their safety data with NO reported safety concerns to date. These results will allow Pfizer to move full steam ahead with regulatory filing for emergency use approval from the Federal Food and Drug Administration (FDA) by end of November. They will still need to prove the vaccine is safe; this data is expected in the third week of November.
In the realm of vaccines, 90% effectiveness is huge! Just for perspective, the FDA has set its efficacy requirement at 50%, and last year’s flu vaccine was 29% effective according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Based on the results, Pfizer’s vaccine is comparable to the measles vaccine, which is ~93% effective with one dose and ~97% effective with two doses. Other than achieving 90% effectiveness, this Pfizer vaccine provides us additional confidence from the standpoint of how it works in our body. Scientists and clinicians believe that the treatment will work because the vaccine has the ability to attack the virus on multiple levels. First of all, it blocks COVID-19 at the point of entry into our cells and thereby hindering the initial access. Secondly, even if it gains access, the vaccine can awaken the immune sentinels called T-cells in our body that are programmed to recognize and seize the virus, then eliminate it before it can cause any harm—this process is called building immunity or protection against the culprit pathogen. The results from the Pfizer study indicate that the virus is proving to be defenseless against these mechanisms. That being said, we still do not know how long this immunity will last. More to come on the level of protection the vaccine offers to different age groups by the end of November. Even if the immunity can last for a year, which is being speculated, there is still hope of keeping the pandemic in check by means of annual vaccination.
Because COVID-19 spreads person-to-person quite easily, the extent of global reach continues to remain widespread. That is why many experts think that it is unlikely that Covid-19 could be eradicated. Although, it is very possible to remove coronavirus as a public-health threat with a vaccine like this available in the prophylactic armamentarium of COVID-19. The biggest caveat though is that enough people MUST take the vaccine if we want to stop this coronavirus pandemic. Even with an effective vaccine, we won’t realize the full effect of the vaccine if people are hesitant to take it. Resistance to the spread of this infectious virus will happen when the right proportion of individuals are vaccinated or gained long-term protection from a natural infection to yield collective immune defense—this is called herd immunity—which is central to effective vaccination.
Herd immunity can be better understood as herd protection. Let’s dive into understanding how herd immunity or herd protection work. When a high percentage of the population is vaccinated, the infection cannot spread as easily, mainly because there aren’t that many people left (unexposed or unvaccinated) who can succumb to the infection—therefore, the disease can potentially disappear. But, the key to making herd immunity work is by vaccinating most of the population. For example, in the case of measles, 19 out of 20 people (95%) need to be vaccinated to protect the remaining 1 out of 20 who are not vaccinated. However, herd immunity does not guarantee protection to those who aren’t vaccinated. A lot of people use herd immunity as an excuse for not getting vaccinated. This sentiment is dangerously flawed. Vaccination is the only way to achieve a high level of individual protection; herd immunity is not a good alternative to getting vaccinated. Herd immunity approach makes sense for vulnerable people such as newborn babies, elderly folks, and those who are too sick to be vaccinated. Think about it this way, if you vaccinate yourself, not only you can protect yourself, but you have a chance to protect the vulnerable people around you.
At the end of the day, removal of Covid-19 as a public-health threat will depend on diligent, wide vaccine administration along with strong public-health measures. Perhaps only then can we begin to see a light at the end of the tunnel, and hopefully return to a degree of normalcy. As Dr. Anthony Fauci said, “The fundamental goal is to get the level of infection in the country so low that when there are little blips of infection, you can easily control them.”
Interestingly, a global survey revealed that 74% of people are willing to get a COVID-19 vaccine, while the remaining 26% are not willing. This information is also available in another post on Will There Be an End to COVID-19? The poll was conducted by Ipsos for the World Economic Forum, which surveyed ~20,000 people across 27 countries. Among the most enthusiastic were the people from China. On the other hand, people from Russia are least willing to take a coronavirus vaccine if available. As for the Americans, 67% said they would get the vaccine while 33% were not that interested. Of those who said they would refuse, 60% gave a reason for suspected side-effects, which is their biggest worry, and 37% said they question effectiveness. But the concern is, would vaccination of 74% of the people suffice? Unfortunately, according to the Head of shaping the future of health and healthcare at the World Economic Forum, Arnaud Bernaert, “The 26% shortfall in vaccine confidence is significant enough to compromise the effectiveness of rolling out a Covid-19 vaccine.”
We potentially have a great vaccine for COVID-19 that could be a game-changer. Much of the success is depended on our choice to get vaccinated. People, please consider getting vaccinated, and let’s put an end to this coronavirus/COVID-19 pandemic.
Sources: See links from the NY Post, The Wall Street Journal, the CDC, and PubMed journal article within the content.
Disclaimer: Vaxtherapy is NOT affiliated with any of the pharma/biotech companies working on COVID-19 vaccines. The purpose of this post is to provide education and awareness from a virologist’s independent perspective based on available facts and data.
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